A little over two years ago I was an intern at the United Nations Department of Political Affairs and while there I worked on summaries for all the speeches of European leaders at the 60th General Assembly. Most of these speeches were rather bland and basically reiterated over and over again ‘economic and political cooperation’, ‘working together’, and the like. While writing these summaries, I was given a break and decided to go down to the Assembly Hall and hear Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi in person. Needless to say it was Hugo’s speech that was most memorable. In his speech…

He called the United States a threat to ‘the very survival of the human species’ and then of course called President Bush the devil on multiple occasions while signing the cross. Unfortunately my personal memory of this speech was brought back to me suddenly when I walked by a copy of the LA Times and it had a picture of Hugo and Obama in a smiling embrace.

My first reaction was not a pleasing one. As the picture and short video were splashed around the American, and most likely world media, Obama attempted to put in perspective the meeting:

“Venezuela is a country whose defense budget is probably 1/600th of the United States. It’s unlikely that as a consequence of me shaking hands with Mr. Chavez that we are endangering the strategic interests of the United States.”

There is definitely a part of me that understands the polite meeting between two world leaders. They each represent a state at a regional conference that is supposed to be about cooperation and engagement. US Presidents have met with all kinds of dictators and human rights violators in the past and will in the future. But I can’t get that original distasteful feeling out of my mind whenever I hear about or see the cheerful meeting between the two. Hugo Chavez in a medium where almost all others talked of peace and cooperation, the UN General Assembly, stated that the US, not just George Bush, was a ‘threat’ to world civilization! I think too many people are thinking this is not so bad because Hugo just hated George Bush and now he likes Obama, so it’s not really anti-Americanism or hurting our interests. While that’s just not true. Listen to his GA speech again, just one of his many anti-US tirades, and it can plainly be seen he wants America diminished or gone. Chavez’s anti-American stance goes beyond rhetoric of course as he has financially supported anti-American political parties and politicians across Latin America, had strategic security discussions with Russia about military basing rights, and held up the Castro regime in Cuba. I don’t see much to laugh about in any of this and I’ve got a pretty good sense of humor.

What would I have done if I was Obama? I probably would have shook his hand and offered a solemn ‘nice to meet’ you and moved along.

This apparently joyful meeting between the two leaders also comes right after Obama did a lot of apologizing for US history and actions in Europe and was immediately followed by his having to listen to several Latin leaders, including Bolivia’s Evo Morales, and Nicaragua’s Danny Ortega, disparage the United States. I mean diplomacy and opening relations is important, but who’s the great power here!? I do not believe the US should go to this event to ‘crack skulls’ and only push our agenda, but it would be nice to see some emphasis on America’s stances and defense of our policies and history.

What was your first reaction when you saw the Obama-Hugo greeting picture or video? What are your feelings after a few days have passed? Did this hurt, help, or not really affect US interests?

Tags: Bush, Hugo Chavez, Obama, Venezuela

Two of GPP’s Top Ranked Great Powers have made strategic moves, or are about to at least, to push them up the standings.

Russian Long-Range Bomber

Russia is in talks with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Raul Castro to base strategic bombers on some of their islands. “There are four or five airfields in Cuba with 4,000-meter-long runways, which absolutely suit us,” stated Russian Maj. Gen. Anatoly Zhikharev. The Major General also stated that Hugo Chavez offered a military airfield on La Orchila island as a temporary base for Russian strategic bombers. Of course these deals are far from completed and Zhikharev admitted that ‘political’ considerations needed to be addressed. If either of these two would come to fruition it would be a blatant disregard for the Monroe Doctrine and put the Obama administration in a difficult position. Of course Moscow’s public talk about such a strategy is itself an affront to US regional interests and influence. Obama is expected to meet with President Medvedev or Prime Minister Putin during April’s NATO meeting and this will only add to their long list of topics.

'Just a moment, Dmitri. Yes, I would like to order a Snuggie, please"

Speaking of NATO, France is back in. Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday announced that France was to be fully integrated into the military structure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This is largely a symbolic move as France has been one of major contributers to NATO’s military actions in the Balkans and Afghanistan and has actually been a member of the Military Committee since 1994, which lets it participate in all political and military activities. Paris’s participation can be seen in their 2,000 troops in Kosovo and more than 3,000 in and around Afghanistan.

Do you think either of these moves raise the stature of each respective state? Or do you actually see some downsides to these decisions? What about for the United States?

Tags: Cuba, Hugo Chavez, NATO, Raul Castro, Sarkozy, strategic bombers, Venezuela

As the price of oil barrels downward, perhaps one of the most important stories is the significance for power politics. Much of the world’s oil production is controlled by nationalized companies, almost all members of OPEC. The severe drop in oil futures from its summertime high of $147 to the mid-$30’s today means many countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, are starving for revenue. Of course, the global recession doesn’t help the situation but this isn’t too unexpected considering overpriced oil was simply part of the unsustainable commodity bubble which had to burst at some point.

Of these affected countries who rely on oil for their livelihood, none have tried to use this boom period more to change their position in the world than Russia. As we speak, the ruble is dropping like a rock against the dollar (although the dollar is doing the same against the euro and the yen but that’s a different story for a different blog). This is occurring partly because of lost revenue for the government, but mainly because of the corrupt institutions Moscow has fostered over the last few years. Unsurprisingly, without guaranteed oil revenue, investors have lost almost all incentive to remain. The rule of law has also been severely distorted under Putin’s reign and those businessmen that once provided some value to the economy have been effectively removed (e.g., Mikhail Khodorkovsky is a good example). Regarding the issue of diminished free speech or a free press, this needs no elaboration.

So like many countries that nationalize their resource-rich industry, Russia has been foolish in the years of boom. Now it is time for bust.

I have read many articles over the past year or so warning on the impending strength of the new Russia and actions such as their invasion of Georgia brought to life some of these concerns. What happens when the money runs out though? This will be the question they will have to answer in the next year as the world sinks even lower in the global recession (or dare I say depression).

It's Mine!!!

Considering the turn Russia has taken in the last few years, I can’t say this is particularly a bad thing - and the same goes for Venezuela as well. I would rather these dictators have less power and resources at their disposal with which to attack their neighbors and brutalize their citizens. But this also means we should expect more civil unrest in such regions. I envision some real turmoil visiting these countries in the next year. As well, the geopolitics of Eastern Europe and Russia’s much talked about re-emergence on the world scene might have to be reconsidered.

Tags: energy resources, gas, oil, recession, Russia, Venezuela