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20
Apr

The New New Cold War: Saudi Arabia and Iran

   Posted by: Pat    in Middle East   Print Print

Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal published this fascinating piece on the rising, so far just cold, conflict between Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Shia-led Iran. Now these two regional powers have been in competition since the fall of the Shah in Iran in 1979, but as the article by Bill Spindle and Margaret Coker describes, the Arab Spring, particularly with the fall of Saudi Arabia’s Sunni partner, Mubarak in Egypt, things have gotten more heated. The intriguing situation in Bahrain, where the Shia majority is in revolt against the minority Sunni leadership, is a flashpoint in this so-called new cold war. As some of you may have heard, Saudi Arabia sent in troops to put down the insurrection and just announced yesterday that those troops aren’t going anywhere. This will definitely be a story to follow.

Here is the lead in to Spindle and Coker’s worthwhile analysis:

For three months, the Arab world has been awash in protests and demonstrations. It’s being called an Arab Spring, harking back to the Prague Spring of 1968.

But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago in Czechoslovakia is turning out to be apt in another way. For all the attention the Mideast protests have received, their most notable impact on the region thus far hasn’t been an upswell of democracy. It has been a dramatic spike in tensions between two geopolitical titans, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

This new Middle East cold war comes complete with its own spy-versus-spy intrigues, disinformation campaigns, shadowy proxy forces, supercharged state rhetoric—and very high stakes.

“The cold war is a reality,” says one senior Saudi official. “Iran is looking to expand its influence. This instability over the last few months means that we don’t have the luxury of sitting back and watching events unfold.”

On March 14, the Saudis rolled tanks and troops across a causeway into the island kingdom of Bahrain. The ruling family there, long a close Saudi ally, appealed for assistance in dealing with increasingly large protests.

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It’s hard to throw a virtual rock nowadays at any foreign affairs publication and not find statements of the demise or fall of American power. In many ways, these are accurate statements as American economic power is falling in proportion to some of the rising economies around the world (although it is still top dog by a fair amount). But how about in terms of military, ideological, and political power? I would argue that in these spheres the United States maintains unparalleled influence when compared to other present great powers. The current uprisings in the Middle East showcase the continual relevance of American power, especially compared to its great power competitors. Daniel Blumenthal of Shadow Government notes that….

The unrest in the Middle East reveals, then, two important facts about China. First, talk of its impending global leadership is greatly exaggerated. Second, we should adequately prepare for China’s day of reckoning as well. A tired United States may wish someone else would help manage the global order; wishing is not going to make it happen.

In what ways are the citizens protesting/revolting, present autocrats, and hopeful future leaders of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, etc. courting the approval/help of China? None, that I can see. What is China saying about these movements in the Middle East? Next to nothing. China seems only concerned as to how these protests might spread to their mainland or oil prices. When you are afraid of your own people, how can you spread your influence around the globe in an effective, all encompassing manner? China does indeed hold great power and influence in today’s international environment, but the events of the Middle East the past few months should give pause to those who say the American moment has passed.

That being said, the events in the demonstrations and revolutions occurring in North Africa, the Arab world, and Iran also demonstrate the limits of American power. I mean, President Obama hosted now former President Mubarak at the White House just a couple months before he was sent to the dust bin of history. The US was not only shown to be caught off guard by the Egyptian revolution, but in many ways, powerless to affect its outcome.

Nevertheless, when trouble arises around the globe, whether it be government’s falling, democracy rising, or pirates rampaging, most eyes invariably look toward America.

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