First off, thank you to all the veterans who have fought to keep us safe and free and continue to do so everyday.

Seeing the pictures of newly-elected President Obama with current President Bush yesterday, I couldn’t help but notice how much older W looks today than he did eight years ago. The presidency of the United States is truly an exhausting position and it will be interesting to look back on these photos when Obama ends his one/two term(s).

Trying to stabilize and bring good governance to Afghanistan will be one of the main issues which will gray Obama’s hair and stretch his wrinkles. Much has been written lately regarding his Afghan policy and how it will compare to the Bush Administration’s. I have discussed US/NATO Afghan policy and the dire situation on the ground there extensively on my Foreign Policy Association ‘Afghanistan and Central Asia‘ blog and have already found the media’s take on Obama’s perceived likely policy choices something to watch.

Widely discussed is Obama’s greater regional and multilateral approach to conflict. Obama no doubt should utilize as many useful and willing national, regional, and multilateral partners as he can, but for the most part most major political organizations in the world are already present in Afghanistan, including; NATO, OSCE, UN, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even the CIS and CSTO have provided some assistance, and many other smaller entities such as law enforcement and border security groupings.

What Obama could bring is a renewed sense of mission, especially from the Europeans, and a rapprochement with an Iranian government that fears a radical Sunni-led government in Afghanistan as much as the US. But these both have caveats, as the Europeans may be wild over Obama, but this may not translate to them sending more troops with greater strategic requirements, as the Germans already seem to be preparing to dodge a future President Obama request. Regarding Iran, it will be difficult to split US policy in Afghanistan with Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. A growth of ties regarding Afghanistan stability may heal some wounds and provide some strategic assistance, but it may also make it more difficult to push/pull the Iranians from the nuclear brink. In addition, an Iran as an ally, though crucial to Iraq’s stability, is less a powerful transformational force in Afghanistan.  What can Iran really do to stop the Taliban hiding out in Pakistan’s tribal regions?

Obama and Bush seem to hold similar views on sending in more troops and the fact that a new strategy must be tried against the Taliban. The Bush administration is actually due to complete a comprehensive report analyzing the Afghan situation and it will reportedly layout policy recommendations this month. It will be interesting to see how this report’s conclusions fit into or affect Obama’s own Afghan plans. Such is the plight of democratic transitions.

Obama and Bush also seem to differ in another key, yet underreported aspect; what is an acceptable Afghan government for the US? In other words, is it the United States concrete goal to leave a liberal democracy or just a stable, anti-Al Qaeda, anti-Islamic radical, pro-US government in Afghanistan? Bush seems determined on the former, while Obama may actually lean toward the latter. This is obviously a crucial element which will affect many policy choices and strategies and will garner my attention in the months ahead.

The answer to the last question will have ramifications on today’s final topic; Negotiating with the Taliban and other insurgents. The US military seems willing, Petraeus, McKiernan, to try ‘reconciliation’, but the State Department and the Bush administration have been more cautious;

Assistant Secretary of State Richard A. Boucher said. “They keep hijacking buses, killing people and chopping their heads off. These are not people who have shown any serious desire to negotiate.”

I don’t have much evidence, but listening to Obama for awhile now, one would think he will at least look deeply into engagement with the enemy. With all these issues, time will tell.

(Photo Source: New York Times)

Tags: Afghanistan, Bush, diplomacy, insurgency, Obama, Taliban